The most recent data for Carlsbad's traditional single-family market paints a neutral outlook given the the most recent sales in the past 60 days. There are currently 316 single-family homes listed under $1M with the average price at $713,600 for a three-bedroom, 2,500 sq.ft home. This does not include short-sale homes. With 60 homes selling per month we have a little more than 5 months of inventory. This signals stable pricing in the short term, with homeowners discounting no more than three percent off their listed price.
Fairly priced, traditional for-sale property under $1M remain at the top of buyer's 'want list' in today's real estate marketplace. Short-sale homes are comprising 15 percent of available for-sale homes, but buyers are steering clear. The uncertainty of when a short-sale will close or if the deal will be approved by the bank fuels anxiety and and causes buyers to pursue traditional sales. Short-sale buyers are having to wait an average of 140 days to close escrow.
And even slower is Carlsbad's luxury market. Sales of single-family and condo homes listed at $1.5M and above have become almost non-existent in the current marketplace. In 2010, only five homes have closed escrow. Lower prices in luxury communities in Encinitas, Cardiff and Rancho Santa Fe have drawn the attention of the fewer available luxury home buyers. With 60 homes priced at $1.5M and above, luxury homeowners must be extremely patient. It may be several years before the right buyer comes knocking.
October traditionally marks the slowest three months for local real estate sales. Home sales lessen by as much as 30 percent from the summer months. Homeowners need to shift their expectations and prepare for increased market times. The average time-to-sell is expected to increase from the current 59 days to 90-plus days. Prices may fall around three percent as homeowners bargain to sell faster. The average Carlsbad home currently selling could slip from current levels of around $716,000 to $696,000.
The best news of the current real estate market continues to be the rock-bottom mortgage rates. Rates were historically low as they hovered around six percent in 2008. Memories of mortgage rates at above 15 percent in the early 1980s spurred many to refinance with the plan to weather a prolonged real estate downturn. Recently, 30-year mortgage rates have dropped again to around 4.3 percent. This has brought the relative cost of real estate down, sparking renewed interest in owning and holding real estate for the long term. A 30-year fixed mortgage of $400,000 at 6 percent is roughly $2,398 a month. With the current owner-occupied rates of 4.375 percent the cost is $1,997, which is a $400 a month difference. In this scenario, the $400,000 home would have to reduce its price by $70,000 to $330,000 to give the buyer the same monthly payment. And with non-owner-occupied mortgage rates around 4.6 percent, investors see returns exceeding a 10 percent return on their investment. This is helping to keep pricing stable by fueling demand amidst an uncertain economic environment.
Should you consider selling in the current market, prepare yourself and your home to assure the best possible outcome. Home staging, cosmetic touch-ups and even minor upgrades can assure success in a tough market. An experienced broker or home staging professional can advise you on cost effective improvements. Homeowners should also consider offering bonuses to buyers, such as a credit towards closing costs for closing within an pre-determined time frame. A bonus of $10,000 towards closing costs is less out-of-pocket and might make more impact than a $10,000 price reduction the buyer would finance anyway. Ultimately, the cool head will prevail in this winter's real estate market.

Las Playas is a complex of townhomes located near Aviara in Carlsbad's 92011 ZIP code. Its location is ideal. Residents walk to beach, award-winning schools and shopping. The low HOA dues include tennis, pool, spa and extensive park and greenbelt areas. Las Playas sells between $385,000 and $475,000 depending on size, location and condition. The three-bedroom, 1,438 sq.ft plan is ideal with large living areas, private rear yard and spacious master bedroom. Buyers looking to live in one of Carlsbad's most desired areas without the million-dollar price-tag should look to Las Playas.

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