The Carlsbad real estate market is experiencing a famine.
There is currently a one and a half month supply of Carlsbad real estate under $1 million. This is extremely low.
Normally, there will be a six to eight month supply with more homes coming on the market to replenish those that have been sold. An unusually low number of homes were listed for sale this summer, leaving buyers to feverishly bid over the few remaining.
Homebuyers are finding newly listed homes have multiple offers during the first week. If it weren't for the conservative appraisals, this temporary scarcity of property might push prices to unsustainable levels.
This news may be difficult for some to comprehend as the first quarter of 2009 was exactly opposite. Too many homes to sell, not enough buyers and the prevailing common thought that the worst was yet to come.
The summer of 2009 was a period that thousands of adjustable rate mortgages were set to reset higher, forcing those homeowners into foreclosure. Like Y2K, the summer came and went without the expected doom.
A statewide moratorium on the foreclosure process, low Libor index rate and several government bailout measures have changed the dismal future to a brighter tomorrow. The deluge of distressed property was diverted.
With no new distressed property and few traditional sellers willing to sell in a down market, our local market is left with only a handful of sellable homes.
The $599,000 and under single family home in Carlsbad is the most competitive sub-markets. The average time to sell is roughly 45 days.
But many of the homes sell in the first two weeks with multiple offers. The average is a three bedroom, two bath, 1,800-square-foot home for $527,000.
FHA and VA buyers are plentiful. Due to the higher number of competing buyers, real estate professionals have only been able to negotiate, at most, 1 percent to 2 percent off the asking price.
Single family homes priced between $600,000 and $750,000 in Carlsbad also are in high demand.
Average homes in this price range in Carlsbad have three or more bedrooms and are 2,485 square feet for $686,000. Average time on the market is 56 days.
Buyers have been able to get as much as 4 percent off the asking price, but it depends highly on the property in question. Bidding wars occur frequently.
Even the $700,000 to $899,000 price range has seen increased activity with roughly 19 homes selling per month in Carlsbad. Buyers have been able to secure an average of 4 percent off the asking price with the average home selling in around 56 days.
The average home that sells in this price range is a four bedroom, three bath, 3,131-square-foot home.
Because of the scarcity of available property, these price ranges have enjoyed more bidders, fewer days on the market and even price increases. But the newly conservative appraisal process has tempered the voracious bidding, allowing only modest increases in sales prices, 1 percent to 3 percent from year lows.
Consider the following recent happening. A two-bedroom condo in Carlsbad was listed for $210,000.
The property had multiple offers in the first seven days. A buyer secures it with a 30 percent down conventional mortgage at $230,000.
The appraisal comes in at $219,000. Since the bank will only lend on the appraised value, the buyer would have to bring the $11,000 difference into escrow.
Today's buyers have been going back to the seller to negotiate the price down to the appraised value. The seller could refuse, but may be stuck with the same appraisal problem with the next buyer.
So although the current market might dictate the condo is worth a higher value, appraisal practices are keeping prices from rising too quickly during this temporary period of shortened inventory. For more information, contact Tyson Lund at (760) 438-0800 or [email protected].
* The following figures are from sales recorded in the Multiple Listing Service from a 90-day period between July 15 and Oct. 15.

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