National real estate economists seem split on the future of the real estate market. Shawn Tully, senior editor for Money Magazine, penned a March 28th article; "Real Estate: It's time to buy again." which outlines several key trends in housing that point to the next few years as a historic opportunity for home buyers. This was written only a week after the same Money magazine ran a story: "Home prices: The double-dip is near" which took quotes from Case-Shiller Index creator Robert Shiller and his recent warning of substantial risk of home prices falling another another 15% to 25%. Both provide excellent insight into the newest macro-economic trends, but in a way crystallizes the divide of opinion about the direction of the current real estate market.
Housing bears forecast continued future home price declines brought on by stagflation, shadow-inventory and/or devaluation of the dollar. The result from excess government intervention and then exit of the mortgage markets. Housing bulls acknowledge the potential economic risks, but site higher affordability, low fixed-rate term mortgages and the multi-year lull in home construction will lead supply constraints in 18 to 24 months.
For our local marketplace, the most recent data in Carlsbad real estate shows slightly lower pricing from 2010 that has helped support a recent bump in number of home sales. Carlsbad experienced a tough 2010 winter for real estate sales. Sales were slow and buyers negotiated hard. Carlsbad single family homes under $1M sold for an average of $641,348, $264 a sq.ft, with an average of 83 days to sell. This is a 4% decline in prices and 30+ days to sell when compared to 2010. But this has encouraged more more buyers to enter the real estate marketplace. Home sales have recently picked up from the winter months of 2010. The Carlsbad market experienced a month over month increase in single family home sales since the start of the year. March experienced a 21% increase in sales from February and a 40% increase over December sales from the previous year.
With the lower prices in the single family home market, today's homebuyers are passing over lesser priced condo's and townhomes. Carlsbad's attached market has seen slower sales and lower prices in 2011. An average of 36 attached homes are selling per month in Carlsbad during 2011. This is down 30% from the same time period in 2010. Average prices are also down to an average of $335,910 from $379,893 with owners giving a discount of 4% off list price, 2% more than in 2010. Homebuyers have been drawn away from condos to the lower prices and better values in the single family home market. This trend compounds the hurt felt by the absence of vacation and second home buyers. These buyers often gravitate toward the lower maintenance & less headache option of a condo or townhome. With fewer attached home buyers, Carlsbad condo prices sit for-sale at steep discounts. With less competition and prices as much as 40% off market highs, homebuyers are encouraged to get out and look at their options in the attached home market.
Carlsbad's luxury market remains a tough sell during the current economic climate. Only about 7 homes priced $1.1M and up are selling per month in Carlsbad. Since the luxury home communities have experienced fewer foreclosures and short-sales, non-distressed homeowners have been keeping their prices high and waiting out potential buyers. But this market is a zero sum game. There must be one party that "gives". Luxury home buyers have the upper hand and should expect to secure great terms in today's real estate market.
The shining star in today's real estate market continues to be low mortgage rates. Average fixed 30 year rates have fluctuated between 4.875% and 5.2%. And although new changes in FHA financing will slightly increase the cost of borrowing with little down payment, the current mortgage rates create affordability and stability. For more information contact Tyson Lund of the Lund Team at (760) 438-0800 or [email protected].
Housing bears forecast continued future home price declines brought on by stagflation, shadow-inventory and/or devaluation of the dollar. The result from excess government intervention and then exit of the mortgage markets. Housing bulls acknowledge the potential economic risks, but site higher affordability, low fixed-rate term mortgages and the multi-year lull in home construction will lead supply constraints in 18 to 24 months.
For our local marketplace, the most recent data in Carlsbad real estate shows slightly lower pricing from 2010 that has helped support a recent bump in number of home sales. Carlsbad experienced a tough 2010 winter for real estate sales. Sales were slow and buyers negotiated hard. Carlsbad single family homes under $1M sold for an average of $641,348, $264 a sq.ft, with an average of 83 days to sell. This is a 4% decline in prices and 30+ days to sell when compared to 2010. But this has encouraged more more buyers to enter the real estate marketplace. Home sales have recently picked up from the winter months of 2010. The Carlsbad market experienced a month over month increase in single family home sales since the start of the year. March experienced a 21% increase in sales from February and a 40% increase over December sales from the previous year.
With the lower prices in the single family home market, today's homebuyers are passing over lesser priced condo's and townhomes. Carlsbad's attached market has seen slower sales and lower prices in 2011. An average of 36 attached homes are selling per month in Carlsbad during 2011. This is down 30% from the same time period in 2010. Average prices are also down to an average of $335,910 from $379,893 with owners giving a discount of 4% off list price, 2% more than in 2010. Homebuyers have been drawn away from condos to the lower prices and better values in the single family home market. This trend compounds the hurt felt by the absence of vacation and second home buyers. These buyers often gravitate toward the lower maintenance & less headache option of a condo or townhome. With fewer attached home buyers, Carlsbad condo prices sit for-sale at steep discounts. With less competition and prices as much as 40% off market highs, homebuyers are encouraged to get out and look at their options in the attached home market.
Carlsbad's luxury market remains a tough sell during the current economic climate. Only about 7 homes priced $1.1M and up are selling per month in Carlsbad. Since the luxury home communities have experienced fewer foreclosures and short-sales, non-distressed homeowners have been keeping their prices high and waiting out potential buyers. But this market is a zero sum game. There must be one party that "gives". Luxury home buyers have the upper hand and should expect to secure great terms in today's real estate market.
The shining star in today's real estate market continues to be low mortgage rates. Average fixed 30 year rates have fluctuated between 4.875% and 5.2%. And although new changes in FHA financing will slightly increase the cost of borrowing with little down payment, the current mortgage rates create affordability and stability. For more information contact Tyson Lund of the Lund Team at (760) 438-0800 or [email protected].